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Good policy
The "Plan" clearly states that traditional high-efficiency lighting will occupy 70% of the market share in the next five years, and LED lighting will occupy 20%. At the same time, by 2015, all incandescent lamps for general lighting above 60W will be eliminated. This is enough to make most companies seize the enthusiasm of the LED market.
Sunlight Lighting (600261.SH) Dong Fang Zhao Fanghua told this reporter that Sunlight currently focuses on the development of LED and lighting. In the LED lighting field, the sales revenue in 2012 will be nearly 400 million, which is 6 times higher than that in 2011, accounting for more than 10% of the company's revenue. The target for 2013 is 1 billion, which is 2.5 times that of 2012, which will account for 30% of the company's revenue. .
Xiamen Tongshida Lighting Co., Ltd. also believes that from the perspective of the internal competition intensity of the industry, the introduction of relevant policies has greatly enhanced the technical barriers of the industry, and many small and medium-sized enterprises may gradually withdraw from the market.
The adjustment of the market structure that follows will gradually concentrate the main demand of the market on several competitive manufacturers.
Although the relevant policies directly affect the downstream application enterprises, it is also a good for the upstream enterprises. A staff member of Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH) told this reporter that the company's more than 100 MOCVD (key equipment for producing LED epitaxial wafers) is almost fully open.
“One is to phase out incandescent lamps, the second is to gradually reduce the mercury content of fluorescent lamps, and the third is to increase the occupancy of LED lighting, which is very positive for upstream companies.†China Microelectronics (600360.SH) Dr. Wang Xin told this reporter that the company mainly supplies power to downstream lamp factories. Due to changes in policies, the production methods, management methods and technologies of low-end manufacturers are challenged. This is conducive to the continuous development of large-scale and regularized enterprises, and finally the enterprises with low-cost production are eliminated.
Hou Yuxuan also said that at present, local governments have vigorously promoted the popularization of LED lighting to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, and encouraged enterprises to apply it to the renovation of public facilities such as public street lighting, public place lighting, and government office building lighting. The LED lighting market gradually Open. From the price point of view, due to factors such as overcapacity in the LED chip manufacturing industry and the government's increased subsidies, LED lighting prices will be greatly reduced, and the market will be popularized.
"Heavy" still takes time
But can emerging LEDs dominate the domestic lighting market in the short term?
At present, the domestic energy-saving lamp lighting industry mainly has two major markets: traditional high-efficiency lighting products and LED lighting. In the short term, the market for general lighting products such as incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps will be rapidly compressed, which is an opportunity for energy-saving lamps and LEDs. But who can laugh at the end, or suspense.
SEMI China's LED industry senior analyst Yan Faxin told reporters that it seems that energy-saving lamps are more advantageous.
His reason is that after decades of development, energy-saving lamps have matured and stabilized in terms of cost, process and performance. “Unless affected by the price of raw materials, there is almost no room for cost reduction (energy-saving lamps), and performance has reached the limit.†Yan Faxin said.
At present, the cost of an energy-saving lamp is less than 1 US dollar, and the LED lighting is about 4 US dollars. This gap determines that the energy-saving lamps will still occupy the "big head" of the domestic energy-saving lighting market in a short period of time.
The policy provides that the bottom line guarantee of 70% market share is its biggest driving force. Hou Yuxuan also believes that with the past of the incandescent lamp era, traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will usher in explosive growth.
At the same time, however, due to a series of support in the national policy, the market is relatively optimistic about the LED market. LEDs are approaching traditional energy-saving lighting, which has led to the closure of many traditional lighting companies in recent years. Therefore, LEDs are more likely to occupy the lighting market quickly.
Zhao Fanghua said that the implementation of the policy is also the key factor in determining who can laugh at the energy-saving lamps and LEDs. "This is related to the elimination of incandescent lamps, the implementation can be implemented, and the speed of implementation." Zhao Fanghua said that if the switch is faster, the short-term may have a greater impact on energy-saving lamps, and vice versa.
This is because the price of energy-saving lamps has stabilized, and the price of emerging LEDs is still falling. If the price of the LED is controlled within twice the price of the energy saving lamp, then the LED is entirely possible to replace the energy saving lamp.
"It depends on the speed of LED's own cost reduction, whether it can compete with energy-saving lamps." Zhao Fanghua told reporters.
Lack of production capacity
The "Plan" clearly pointed out that the annual output of LED lighting energy-saving industry will increase by about 30%, reaching 450 billion yuan in 2015, including 180 billion yuan for LED lighting applications.
Industry insiders worry that under the temptation of huge market, blind and low-level expansion will repeat the overcapacity.
During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's LED lighting energy-saving industry grew at an average annual rate of more than 35%. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2010, there were more than 5,000 semiconductor lighting companies in China, including about 1,000 enterprises above designated size.
At the end of 2012, the Quality Supervision Bureau and the Industry and Commerce Bureau conducted a random inspection of LED lighting products, energy-saving lamps, road lighting, fire emergency lamps and electric light sources. The results of LED lighting products were only 51%.
Hou Yuxuan believes that the LED downstream lighting market is already at the critical point of overcapacity. Although the industry reversal turning point has arrived in the second half of 2012, due to favorable policies, the industry is very optimistic about the LED lighting market, and most companies continue to expand their production capacity. However, the global economy is weak, LED lighting exports are blocked, and it is difficult to get better after the domestic sales. The internal and external difficulties have caused enterprises to fall into a situation that contradicts the favorable environment of industry policies.
"Although LED lighting is a new generation of lighting technology, but in the industry, its technical content is not even as good as energy-saving lamps." Yan Faxin said that many domestic LED lighting is now "small and assembled" for small and medium-sized enterprises, not much is their own. He believes that the upstream chip manufacturing technology of LEDs and the packaging technology of the midstream are our shortcomings, while downstream companies lack market segmentation and differentiation. LED lighting is a system, and enterprises to improve their competitiveness are nothing more than breakthroughs in technical design, improvement of product reliability and safety, and differentiation of market positioning.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.) 
LED lighting "to dominate" the domestic lighting market still takes time
Recently, "the roadmap for reducing mercury content in fluorescent lamps" and "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Planning" (hereinafter referred to as "Planning") have been successively introduced. With the past era of incandescent lamps, traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will usher in explosive growth. In terms of long-term development, LED products will be the dominant player in the future lighting market," said Hou Yuxuan, a researcher in the environmental protection industry of China Investment Consulting. .