How do international investors see the growth of Alibaba?

| Alibaba vs Amazon: A Richer Business Ecology

Speaking of JD.com, domestic investors will always compare Amazon's e-commerce and logistics. The conclusion is that JD.com is often a counterfeit product. All of them are copied, but there is no way to copy the logistic experience -- Amazon's logistics robot cow. Forcing, JD does not need to learn or learn (low labor costs). Speaking of Alibaba’s cloud, domestic investors again took Amazon’s AWS out and compared it. The result is still the same. Amazon’s early deployment was deeper and the technology and scale were better than Alibaba Cloud. In other words, most people think that Amazon is a target company for referring and comparing domestic companies. What about foreigners when they look at Alibaba?

Like the Chinese people, when they talk about Alibaba, the first idea they came up with was: Well, Alibaba and Amazon are more and more like, if the e-commerce internationalization success and the cloud service catch up with Amazon, then both It can be compared. Therefore, Alibaba's understanding is that the highly-reliable e-commerce giant is very dependent on the Chinese market. At the same time, the old Americans also particularly remembered Ma's remarks that the number of clients eventually served - "more than 2 billion users and 30% of Chinese people will not use Ali products." Therefore, Western investors believe that Ali's overseas expansion path will also be more and more like Amazon is also reasonable. However, in fact, when Ali was created in China, the American shopping ecosystem could not be experienced by the Americans. The channels of the Ali family covered the main shopping process of the consumers, unlike the American market. The entire ecology was still divided by the giants, so the foreigners said There will be a lack of understanding of Ali's ecology.

The entire online shopping ecosystem consists of four parts: brand promotion, product distribution, sales, and sharing. We have made a comparison of the differences between China and the United States in the four links of online shopping:

Brand promotion (namely, brand advertising, often referred to as “attention economy”) aims to arouse the attention and interest of consumers and establish the brand image of a company or product. This requires a large amount of capital investment and repeated advertisements. Help consumers form memories. Since it is far from the final purchase behavior of consumers, its process control is extremely complicated, and the results are generally difficult to measure. In the early days when e-commerce was not so developed, the main promotion method of brand advertising was the form of TV advertising + flagship store + billboards . When people's attention shifted to the Internet, brand advertising became traffic and attention on the Internet. Power business .

YouTube can be compared to the original TV ads feature, but it depends on the number of views rather than the traditional TV time;

Facebook is like the form of billboards, mainly because it has a steady flow and the user's attention is more concentrated, so FB's online brand advertising will be more efficient than offline billboards;

With respect to flagship store advertisements, Chinese people have gradually developed the habit of searching for flagship stores such as Tmall or JD. However, the old Americans are already accustomed to their self-owned websites as flagship stores, so eBay and Amazon are not necessary either. Providing the corresponding scene, you can't see the function of the flagship store.

Commodity communication (that is, effect advertisement, which can be called “desire economy”) is aimed at the exploration stage (creative desire) that is closest to the consumer purchase behavior. Its expression form is completely different from brand advertisement, for example, capital investment is no longer the most The unattainable astronomical figures of small and medium-sized enterprises can become measurable. The behaviors measured can be clicks, downloads, registrations, telephone calls, online consultations, or purchases. Basically, they can be summarized as CPA (Cost PerAction) or CPS (Cost). Per Sale) category. The TV shopping channel is a traditional effect advertisement. After transferring to the Internet, the effect advertisement is combined with each person's label. For example, Facebook can use the user database provided by the advertiser to do precise push; microblogging makes “class” precise push according to the type of user's attention; Cats make recommendations based on customer search records.

Sales (that is, purchase behavior) is the last act of saving money after seeing an advertisement. In the United States, online scenes are Amazon, ebay, and portals of various brands; in China, Tmall, Taobao, Jingdong, and Netease Koala And other platforms. Lines have always been shopping, shopping malls and other consumer scenes.

Sharing (that is, after-sales word-of-mouth publicity), commodities are essentially divided into two categories: branded and unbranded. For branded products, as long as the word of mouth is not bad, its impact will not be great; and for non-branded products, word of mouth has a great significance, because word of mouth marketing can solve the majority of consumers in the purchase of goods problem. Taobao, Tmall, Jingdong and so on have a relatively complete review mechanism to encourage users and businesses to complete the evaluation of this link. In the United States, this link is relatively weak, Amazon did not encourage or stimulate businesses and consumers to evaluate the product, which led to the evaluation of many products are very small (mainly because of scattered consumption scene). For example, the comments on Taobao's search for a popular mobile phone add up to a level of 100,000, but Amazon's Echo rating is only less than 50,000.

Simply put, as consumers living in the United States, they actually complete the entire consumption process under different platforms and different scenarios. Although they are fluent, the losses in the middle are relatively large. For example, after seeing a brand advertisement on YouTube and seeing the advertisement of this product while brushing FB, it is very likely that you will click into the line or go to the offline store to purchase. However, different platforms require a series of actions such as re-registering an account, entering an address, etc. to give a poor review of the shopping experience. As an advertiser, it is relatively inefficient to market the marketing network on different channels. There are many things that need to be coordinated, such as the promotion of objects and the delivery time.

Ali gave advertisers the opportunity to complete an omnichannel marketing network under a single ecosystem. Ali’s layout in the entire ecological chain of online shopping is so much stronger than other competitors. The reason why this situation does not appear in the United States and may not even happen is that neither Amazon nor eBay can touch the whole of the antennae. Eco-chain, if you really want to enumerate one of the players most likely to be involved in the entire online shopping ecosystem, it must be Facebook, but the difficulty is still relatively large, and FB is not trying to do this. At present, the advertisements of FB's shopping guides are all linked to external websites, which is also the strength of Ali.

Another difference between China and the United States is logistics, where logistics experience and costs are the pain points. Amazon is the best among overseas companies in this respect, but its average cost is also 2 US dollars/single, which means that the old Americans can go to DollarStore to buy at least two things. In contrast, Alibaba's logistics environment is a lot of leading, low cost, it is said that rhyme delivery pay is 5 yuan / single, and now China rarely see 10 yuan, let alone take 5 Lump money to spend.

Regardless of whether Ali or Amazon, e-commerce is currently occupying 85% of its revenue as its main business. However, friends who have used Amazon can feel that there are differences in the online shopping ecosystem in China and the United States. The intuitive experience of this difference is also Dear friends can feel it personally.

| Alibaba vs Amazon: It's All About the Long Term (focus on long-term development)

People who know Amazon are very clear that its founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos, is a person who is obsessed with long-term goals. In an interview with Wired magazine in 2011, Bezos said: “If everything you do is built around the three-year plan, then your competitors will be too much; but if you are willing to invest for a period of seven years, In the planning period, your competitors will be much less - because few companies are willing to do so."

We know that before Alibaba (founded in 1999), e-commerce companies such as Amazon and Ebay (all established in 1995) have already served as mentors. If Alibaba was born at a turning point in the rapid development and integration of Chinese business and technology, after 17 years The development of Alibaba has long been broken, from core business e-commerce, to electronic media entertainment, local services, to more low-end commercial infrastructure such as payment, logistics networks, big data, and cloud services. From Ali's current industrial layout, we see a point very similar to Amazon: It's All About the Long Term (Amazon is very famous in a letter to the shareholders), behind which you can see three new giants of Ali. Haven't started to earn money by brush.

A careful comparison of Alibaba's latest 1H16 financial report and past, you can see Ali's first disclosure of the four departments of the data, which also shows Ali's commercial territory formation and ambition. The information of the four departments is: e-commerce business, cloud service, digital media and entertainment, innovation business and others.

In the first half of 16 years, revenue of 4.8 billion U.S. dollars and 85% came from core business e-commerce. Three big players: cloud services, digital media and entertainment, innovative businesses and others who are still under their brother's e-commerce business's milking business. (The EBIT margin is -13%, -32%, -166%, respectively).

Don’t elaborate on the financial data of the first half of the year to boost Alibaba’s share price. This is only a large strategic layout to look at the seating of Alibaba in the capital market. The latest volume of US$234.7 billion will count on the recent rumored 60 billion yuan listed in Hong Kong next year. The dollar valuation of ant gold suits, Ali system is squeezed into the top 5 Internet companies in the world (strictly cannot simply add).

If you simply look at the market value target, overseas investors have come to recognize the Ali model. Second, there is the Amazon as a target. But to give Amazon’s current market value, it still needs to be honored by Alibaba Cloud and Ali’s overseas expansion. BABA’s latest market value of US$234.7 billion, without considering Alipay, is likely to be its current market value, but it will lag behind for about three years.

The total number of active buyers for the first half of 2016 was 434 million, and 427 million MAU. In addition, the number of potential users of Alibaba in China is 720 million. Currently, there are only 52% of the Chinese population (the number of Chinese netizens). As the penetration rate increases, the growth rate will definitely decline. The growth of the ARPU may not be able to support the decline in the overall revenue growth caused by the decline in the number of subscribers. Three of Ali's new mammoths are expected to need several years of retreat. For the moment, Alibaba’s Tmall and Taobao are still strong supporters of Alibaba’s stock price, and they will even make it higher and higher, but this process is not It will be particularly fast. If you look at this, overseas investors must see that the establishment of Alibaba Cloud or the expansion of overseas trends will have a further price in the stock price.

| Karen Khan understands Ali is not lost in the country

If the initial Ali is to help SMEs find business opportunities, services for SMEs, now that Ali is still the service business, but more high-end, more bottom, more large-scale, state-owned enterprises not only doing this once Kaijiangtuotu anything else, Workers and peasants in the construction (ant gold), is also a Tekki base builder (e-commerce platform + cloud service), but also do entrepreneurs mixed food (digital media and entertainment + innovation and other business) .

Ali has a richer and more complete business model and ecosystem. After analyzing the e-commerce business and Alibaba Cloud that have affected Alibaba's net profit, many mainland investors are eager to know whether or not we will outperform international investors in the industry. From the perspective of the person, the answer may be negative.

Compared with Tencent, Yan Guoren's understanding of Ali is more thorough. The reason for this is that they have a deep understanding of the Amazon model. Although there will be differences in the route, it seems that the resulting oligopoly will be the same. (including 85% of e-commerce and another big cloud service). All that Ali needs to do now is to exceed expectations, but it seems that the Chinese people will not have much advantage in forecasting their overseas growth rate and Alibaba Cloud's growth rate, unless there is a corresponding channel to track the corresponding data, otherwise the information In the case of symmetry, it does not have a particularly large deviation from the perception of overseas investors.

Merrill Lynch summarized the historical experience and predicted the business of Ali. He believed that the trend of Ali's cloud services and overseas expansion has already formed and will be honored in 19 and 20 years. It can be seen that overseas investors' expectations of Alibaba are very similar to those of Amazon.


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Lei Feng Net Note: This article by the author Gao Jiawei, Li Guangyu starting Lei Feng network (search "Lei Feng network" public concern) , a hedge fund analyst. We are interested to pay attention to its WeChat account number, IDSfinsugar, which focuses on TMT Hi-tech companies and the industry's capital market analysis. Reprint please contact us for authorization, and keep the source and the author, not to delete the content.

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