Two academicians: how much space for telecom operators to reduce fees


The speed-up and fee-reduction plan has been announced for nearly a month. However, what depresses the three major operators is that these measures have failed to satisfy the public. An online survey conducted by ChinaNet.com showed that 83% of participants expressed dissatisfaction with the three operators' fee reductions.

A series of speed-up and fee-reduction measures did not win public praise.

On May 15th, the three major operators announced plans to increase speed and reduce fees at the same time. China Unicom said that it will reduce the overall unit price of mobile subscriber data traffic of the entire network by more than 20%, and the original 2G and 3G mobile subscribers of Beijing Unicom will all increase to 4G, and the broadband subscriber network speed will be doubled free of charge; More than %; China Telecom promised that the unit price of broadband will drop by about 35%.

The speed-up and fee-reduction plan has been announced for nearly a month. However, what depresses the three major operators is that these measures have failed to satisfy the public. An online survey conducted by ChinaNet.com showed that 83% of participants expressed dissatisfaction with the three operators' fee reductions.

“Speed ​​increase and fee reduction are users' endless demands and are always pursued by operators.” Liu Yunjie, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and dean of the Jiangsu Future Network Innovation Research Institute, said that the most fundamental way to solve this problem is for operators. Through network innovation, provide differentiated and better services.


Speed ​​reduction and fee reduction are the needs of netizens

Affecting the public evaluation is still the current level of broadbandization and tariffs in China.

According to Qi Hexuan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and vice chairman of the China Communications Society, since the release of the broadband China strategy and implementation plan in 2013, the speed of broadband in China has been accelerating, and operators are also reducing their tariffs every year. From an absolute price point of view, China's mobile traffic tariff is comparable to or even lower than that of international mainstream operators; the absolute price of fixed broadband is lower than that of the United States, higher than that of Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, especially the popularity and price level of high-speed broadband, from the global From the situation, China still has a big gap.

According to the test of Akamai of the United States, the average speed of fixed broadband in China was 3.4 Mbps at the end of 2014, ranking 82 (Brazil ranked 89, Vietnam ranked 99, India ranked 116, Indonesia ranked 122, specific speed measurement methods and influencing factors to be analyzed). The latest test data of China’s broadband development alliance is 5.12Mbps, which can be ranked between 50-60 in the world at this rate. According to the ITU report, China’s fixed broadband tariffs account for 3.5% of the per capita national income (US$6,560 in 2013), ranking 86th in the world. Mobile tariffs are divided into prepaid and postpaid, and the ratio of per capita national income is between 60 and 77 in the world.

This is a set of data provided by Qi Hejun. “From the visual data, this situation is not commensurate with China’s status as a big country. However, China’s per capita GNI (gross national income) is also ranked in the world’s top 80. This shows that China’s communications industry The international status and overall economic development level are closely related."

There is also a key indicator that can reflect the actual status of China’s informatization in the world. This indicator is per capita international trunk bandwidth. In 2013, the per capita international trunk bandwidth was 52K in the world, 8K in Africa, and only 4.3K in China. In 166 countries around the world, our country ranked 133th. In other words, China is one-eighth of the world average and half the level in Africa.

"The level of broadband has pulled down China's index of innovation ability and informationization," said Qi Hejun.

From the perspective of these data, it is difficult for domestic users to score high scores on existing broadband and mobile Internet services.

From the beginning of the year, the Chinese government began to put forward a series of requests for speed reduction and fee reduction.

“This is not a government requirement. It is a requirement of the market.” He said that now that the mode of economic growth is changing, the central government hopes to create a good environment for public entrepreneurship and innovation, and the speed and cost reduction of the communications industry is a good starting point and entry point. . This is a market behavior and it is also an operator's own development needs.

He Hee told reporters that from the point of view of communications expenditures, China’s Internet users’ communications spending accounts for 7%-8% of disposable income of Internet users, which is basically at the level of developing countries. In developed countries, this figure is generally less than 4%. China's fixed-line broadband tariff is probably a bit higher than that of BRICS countries, and lower than developed countries. However, relative to per capita national economic income, China's fixed-line broadband tariff is several times that of the United States. Mobile broadband tariff is equivalent to per capita national economic income. China's mobile broadband tariff is almost 9 times that of the United States. To solve this problem, one must rely on operators to speed up and reduce fees, on the other hand, it is to continuously raise the level of national income.

“The public hopes that price cuts are natural, and the development of information technology also offers the possibility of price cuts,” said Wu Hejun.

However, for operators, speeding up and reducing fees is far less imaginative than it is. In the view of Qi Hexuan, the three major operators put forward some unimaginable indicators of speed increase and fee reduction. For example, fixed network will realize 20M in cities and 10M in rural areas in 2015, and it must achieve a free upgrade to 10M below 4M.

"It's better than I thought, but many netizens said that operators are not sincere enough. I personally think that it is too early to conclude." Wu Hejun said, because the operator promised to complete this round of speed increase and fee reduction by the end of 2015. The speed increase is not so easy. It involves equipment, investment, and manual opening. It needs to be done by one family, one household and one household. It is now half a year from the end of the year. For operators, the task is very heavy.

Statistics show that in recent years, communications tariffs have shown a downward trend. From 2011 to 2014, the average fixed-line tariff dropped by 30% nationwide, and the mobile traffic tariff dropped by 60%.

“The price reduction is a behavior of the market and it is also a manifestation of social responsibility.” Qi Hejun said that operators can take on important responsibilities and not be wronged. This is an opportunity to contribute to national economic growth and national development.

It is a challenge but also an opportunity

There is no doubt that for any operator, speeding up and fee reduction is a huge challenge. This challenge is not only due to profit pressure, but also because of business philosophy.

According to industry insiders in the domestic telecommunications field, access to the operator's network is a major concern for fixed network, which accounts for half of the operator's investment.

Just recently, Shang Bing, the vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that by 2017, 4G networks will cover urban and rural areas in a comprehensive manner, and the average broadband access rate of major cities will basically reach the average level of developed countries in 2015.

The industry insiders told reporters that at the end of last year, China's fiber-to-the-home opening rate was only a little more than 1/4 of coverage. However, operators cannot lay only 1/4 users when laying fiber. This means that investment cannot be recovered quickly. The same is true of cities. In rural areas, investment recovery time will be longer.

In mobile communications, statistics show that in the first quarter of last year, China’s 4G users accounted for about 1/7 of the country’s mobile users. But the network must do full coverage.

“Only by waiting for the scale of the user to come, the marginal cost of investment can be reduced. Now it is just the beginning of construction, operators have great pressure on investment.” He said.

The global communications industry generally believes that the communication infrastructure, especially broadband construction, has the characteristics of large investment and long return period. In particular, China’s 4G has just started for more than a year, and effective implementation of speed reduction and fee reduction requires a process. This has formed a huge gap with the current needs of Internet users.

“Operators can hardly meet the demands of speeding up and fee reduction for the long-term by the current network construction methods. The three major operators are increasing their bandwidth at almost double the speed every year. Operators are also striving to improve the speed of the Internet, but China’s Internet users The network speed that can enjoy is still very slow.” Liu Yunjie said that solving this contradiction must start from many aspects. The state should give support from the policy, such as formulating a policy of resource sharing in the management of the industry, and avoiding the high costs of duplicate construction. In addition, the country is currently facing the opportunity of the transformation of the Internet technology. China's operators should embark on a road to China's network innovation and development.

In Liu Yunjie's view, the only feasible way for operators is through continuous innovation of network architecture and technology, increase network speed, and reduce network construction and maintenance costs, so as to achieve the goal of continuous “speed increase and fee reduction” and at the same time, through the provision of differences. Services to achieve increased business income.

Operators such as the US ATT have already been trying out. The core concept of the Domain 2.0 strategy is to provide users with customized and differentiated services through network architecture and key technology innovations, and at the same time realize the sustainable development of the company itself.

"It seems to be very passive, but it is also a rare opportunity for operators." He said that for the first time, the country has proposed that broadband networks are an important infrastructure of the country and that broadband networks must be supported as public infrastructure.

Not only is the importance stressed unprecedentedly, but also in specific policies.

In the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of High-speed Broadband Networks to Accelerate Network Speed-up and Fee Reduction" issued last month by the State Council, it was clearly proposed to accelerate the construction of all-fiber network cities and fourth-generation mobile communications (4G) networks in the next three years. The cumulative investment in network construction is no less than 1.1 trillion yuan. Among them, the investment in network construction exceeded RMB430 billion in 2015, and the cumulative investment in 2016-2017 was not less than RMB 700 billion.

“In the past, the telecommunications industry complained that the country did not put large funds into the network, and the developed countries arranged special funds to invest in the network. This time the central government made clear that several investment directions are supported by the central government and require the cooperation of local governments.” Qi He’e said that if funds are implemented, It is now a good opportunity for operators to develop broadband.

If we consider from a larger background, the speed-reduction and fee-reduction requirements of this time have a considerable correlation with the implementation of the Internet + plan and China Manufacturing 2025.

According to the data from the China Internet Network Information Center, China’s Internet economy accounted for 3.3% of GDP in 2013 and exceeded the United States. At the end of 2014, the proportion of China’s Internet economy to GDP reached 7%, and Internet consumption has become a new engine driving GDP growth.

"But in the industrial Internet, the popularity of cloud computing, the use of SMEs in the Internet, China is probably 1/4 to 1/3 of the United States." He said that China is now in the new normal economy and it urgently needs new growth points. How to use the Internet to transform traditional industries and increase new industries is what economic development is looking forward to.

Future development depends on new services

If only from the perspective of revenue, the three major operators are rich and powerful.

According to the financial report, in 2014, China Mobile’s net profit was 109.3 billion yuan, China Unicom’s net profit was 12.06 billion yuan, and China Telecom’s net profit was 17.7 billion yuan. In the eyes of ordinary people, such high profits have a lot of room for fee reduction. However, in fact, two of the three operators’ net profit accounted for only about 4% of the net income, while the network construction investment accounts for more than 30% of the revenue, which poses tremendous pressure on the operators' survival and development.

“Not to say that there is profit, we can cut prices. With the expansion of scale, there is room for price cuts.” He said that the rate of growth of operator revenues is now falling. The network development has reached a point of basic saturation, and it is difficult for fixed-line broadband to increase again. The growth pattern relying on the growth of the number of users has been difficult to continue. ”

So, does the operator have any space for speed increase and cost reduction?

On this issue, the two academicians of Qi Heyi and Liu Yunjie are positive.

In the eyes of Wu Hejun, the progress of information technology is accompanied by price cuts. When users reach a considerable scale, the cost will be greatly reduced. In the industrial Internet, China still has a lot of room for growth. "In the end, you can also benefit from management."

In Liu Yunjie's opinion, the speeding up and fee reduction must be achieved in accordance with the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of High Speed ​​Broadband Networks to Accelerate Speed-up and Fee Reduction" and rely on the joint efforts of the entire society. On the one hand, the three major telecom operators must reduce costs through the co-construction and sharing of infrastructure, especially the construction and sharing of communications resources such as towers and computer rooms. In addition, legislation and other means should also be adopted to ensure the construction of communication infrastructure and the sharing of “right of way”.

"In the development of China's information and communication industry, both telecom operators and Internet companies have played a significant role." Liu Yunjie said that the reason why China's Internet companies have achieved rapid development has a lot to do with OTT's business model.

The so-called OTT service is that the Internet company provides a free service to the user across the operator's billing system.

Liu Yunjie told reporters that from the cost point of view, the development costs of OTT services are passed on to the construction cost of operators' backbone networks. This is the so-called “wool is on pigs”. Therefore, Internet companies have rapid development and high profits. However, under such circumstances, how to guarantee the motivation and enthusiasm for the further construction of the operator backbone network is a topic that must be solved for the healthy development of the Internet. In October 2014, the United States ATT announced plans to stop the construction of the backbone network and metropolitan area network of 100 cities in the United States. This is the decision made in this case.

“These issues are unavoidable issues in the overall development of the Internet industry. Only by taking into account the interests of all parties in the industrial value chain, and mobilizing everyone's enthusiasm, the Internet can continue to develop in a healthy manner.” Liu Yunjie said, at this stage, the profits of Internet companies. Far more than the operators, the backbone network used by the OTT service does not pay fees to the operators. The speed reduction and fee reduction should be aimed at the general users and should not include the Internet company. For Internet companies, the most pressing need is for carriers to provide better service quality rather than reduce tariffs.

According to Liu Yunjie, Internet companies are willing to pay reasonable fees if operators can provide high-quality network services like highways, high-speed rail, and aviation. This can make the entire value chain win-win, so as to further promote the development of "Internet Plus."




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