Jia Yueting cried again, because LeTV's electric car finally no longer only exists on the PPT. When Jia Yueting let the car automatically return to the position, the scene was applauded. Because building a car is not easy, let alone build a smart car. Leaving the concept of LeTV, don't mention it. If you go to Singapore next year, you may be able to take an unmanned vehicle. Because the drivers are not enough, Singapore's public light rail and bus network operator SMRT Services has already reached a cooperation with a Dutch driverless technology company to deploy unmanned buses at the end of the year.
LeTV
Coincidentally, recently, the domestic car Changan Automobile also completed the road test of unmanned vehicles. The test car was opened from Chongqing all the way to Beijing. It took 2,000 kilometers in 5 days and arrived safely.
News about unmanned driving has been swept through technology media, technology companies such as Google, Baidu, traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, and unmanned news seem to lag behind the times. However, is drone really close to us?
How many years does it take to get on a car without a driver?
Google driverless car
Google's calm and Baidu's urgency
In April 2012, Google showed its first driverless car.
In the following five years, Google’s unmanned vehicles ran more than 1 million kilometers in the streets of three US cities. Last month, Google was allowed to conduct road tests in Phoenix, Arizona, renewing the map, and staying in the long test road.
Behind the test, Google has a huge ambition: to subvert the entire transportation system. Driverless is one step in place, and the car will not have a steering wheel and pedals instead of drivers driving on the road. In the future, everyone does not need to buy a car, because the unmanned car can be on call. There is also a road traffic system that follows the unmanned revolution. Traffic lights are no longer needed at intersections, and vehicles communicate with themselves in an efficient and orderly manner.
Of course, in Google's planning, the benefits of driverlessness are obvious: all the drivers that drive Google's unmanned cars are electricity, and naturally there is no tail gas pollution; cars are no longer necessary for every family, and the amount of ownership is greatly reduced. However, the efficiency of unmanned unmanned vehicles is greatly improved, thus solving the problem of traffic congestion; more importantly, the reliability of the machine is higher than that of people, and the occurrence of traffic accidents is reduced, and travel will be safer. .
However, the bigger the ambition, the bigger the obstacles, and the fact that it is placed in front of Google is no longer a technical problem. So far, Google's unmanned vehicles, which have no steering wheel and no throttle and brake pedals, are only allowed to be tested in four cities throughout the United States. Even in California, where the US technology industry is the most developed, unmanned vehicles are also required to be equipped with drivers to cope with possible failures.
The problems facing Google are not unpredictable. Since the birth of the first car on January 29, 1886, the design, operation, and regulatory system of the car has been based on the participation of people for 130 years. Even if Google’s driverless driver wants to break through these institutional restrictions, it needs Step by step, go for a long time.
Under this kind of thinking, the reliability of unmanned vehicles is obviously the most worthy of concern in the eyes of ordinary people. "Google has 14 accidents during the test. Although only one time is the reason for unmanned vehicles, people may remember this time. In driverless driving, people tend to demand absolute reliability." Mobileye China District General Manager Su Shuping said.
On the safety of the car, there is also a concern about "safety" in a broader sense: the essence of driverlessness is that artificial intelligence replaces human drivers, and there are not many people who are worried about artificial intelligence. Hawking, Musk, and others have jointly sent an open letter asking for the development of artificial intelligence to be limited because the machine is not as reliable as it is supposed to be, and it will eventually replace people. In March of this year, Google's artificial intelligence program AlphaGo defeated humans in the field of Go, and it also caused intense discussion. The biggest challenge of driverlessness lies in people.
Even so, driverlessness is not just a dream of the future that Google hopes to achieve. At the same time as Google, Baidu is also conducting drone road test. Wang Jin, vice president of Baidu's unmanned vehicle project, has repeatedly stated that he can commercialize driverless cars in three to five years.
Baidu unmanned driving
Baidu is undoubtedly more urgent than Google. Baidu founder Li Yanhong submitted a proposal for an unmanned vehicle at the two sessions this year, and proposed to speed up the formulation and improvement of policies and regulations related to driverless cars. But on the timetable that drones really enter our lives, Google clearly has a different view. Chris Ulmson, technical director of Google's driverless car project, once said: "Depending on the region, the commercial use of driverless cars may take up to 30 years."
So is Baidu too big on the idea of ​​unmanned driving? Deng Zhidong, a professor at Tsinghua University who has studied the seven-year unmanned vehicle, believes that "Baidu may focus more on business model innovation, with the support of the government, three to five years, the possibility of using unmanned vehicles in specific areas such as scenic spots and public transportation. great". “In China, once the technology is mature, legal and infrastructure construction is not a problem, because the government’s executive power is too high,†said Deng Zhidong.
Tesla Model S
Auxiliary driving will come faster
Compared to Google Baidu's "radical", there is a path to popular unmanned driving closer to us: from assisted driving to full driverless driving.
Tesla is one of them. Last year, Tesla upgraded the Autopilot feature for the Model S model. When driving on the highway, Autopilo can keep the vehicle in the lane and automatically adjust the speed and direction according to the condition of the vehicle. In April of this year, Tesla released the new model Model 3, which can also be upgraded in the future, with a predetermined amount of nearly 400,000.
"Behind the new Tesla hot, it reflects the huge prospects of electric cars and driverless," Su Shuping said. In the field of assisted driving, Mobileye is the originator of well-deserved. Tesla's autonomous driving function is essentially assisted driving, which is the core technology of Mobileye.
Whether it is assisted driving or final unmanned driving, it is a core issue for the vehicle to be able to sense the surrounding environment. But the technology of this Israeli company is significantly different from that of Google and Baidu. In previous driverless cars, the top of the vehicle embossed obvious sensors and radar components for real-time detection of road conditions. The vehicle is combined with a high-precision map to automatically calculate how the vehicle should travel.
These probes are not obvious on Tesla models. Mobileye chooses another way: using a cheaper integrated camera to develop a dedicated processing chip that allows the vehicle to automatically identify lane lines, pedestrians, traffic signals, traffic signs, etc. while driving, and based on the identified images Early warning, and even control of the vehicle.
Su Shuping believes that relative to the price of hundreds of thousands of laser radar and high-precision GPS and fiber optic gyro, through visual recognition to assist driving, the cost can be as low as several hundred dollars, more commercial prospects. “It takes a long way to drive to unmanned driving,†Su Shuping said. “But it’s easier to get from the machine-assisted person to the completely unmanned path, and it’s easier to accept.â€
In fact, the cost issue has been recognized as a roadblock to the popularity of driverless driving. After the departure of former Intel Research Institute President Wu Gansha, he founded the technology and focused on driverless solutions. On many occasions, he bluntly said that Google and Baidu's driverless cars are too expensive. "If an unmanned car costs 2 million, and the cost of a driver is only 60 to 70,000 a year, it is not economically economical."
Low-cost driverless technology has become one of the goals of VCs. On April 18th, the venture capital fund of Andy Rubin, the father of Android, led the A-round financing of the driverless car technology company Nauto. The company was founded in 2015. By using imaging sensors, GPS and other low-cost components in semi-professional cameras, the cost of identifying the surrounding environment is much lower than that of Google.
In the popularity of driverless driving, Wu Gansha also put forward two value propositions: in the first five years, the development of driverless driving is mainly to assist the driver. After 10 years or so, the driverless driver can be used to travel. people. In the early days, unmanned vehicles might only travel between home and office; then, large-scale unmanned vehicles would be commercialized in urban areas; finally, unmanned driving could be achieved throughout the region. Wu Gansha believes that "this may indeed take a long time."
How long it takes, depending on when and where you need an unmanned car, it may take a year or 30 years.
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