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However, in the face of changes in the economic environment, business operations have been mixed. The reporter's investigation in Shenzhen found that some enterprises with product advantages have the ability to take advantage of the economic adjustment and occupy the market advantage position; the enterprises that are deeply trapped in the transitional difficulties have been eliminated in the industry “shuffleâ€.
The industry believes that the current SME confidence still needs to be restored, and the economic recovery is facing many uncertain factors. In the future, only the micro-entities will undergo a smooth transition, and the macro economy will become more stable.
Enterprises feel the recovery "warm"
The workers in the Huangfengling Industrial Zone in Shiyan, Baoan District, Shenzhen, and the small household appliance company Emmett Electric (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. are busy producing the last batch of electric heaters this year. A few weeks later, the workers here will produce electric fans based on the orders received next year. According to Cai Zhengfu, the vice chairman of Emmett, from January to August, Emmett's domestic market sales increased by nearly 16%, Japan and South Korea's market sales increased by 9%, while European and American market sales fell by 12.6%. Although the slowdown in domestic macroeconomic growth has not yet ended, the company has already felt a little warm. "Our main products, electric heaters, have not yet ushered in the peak season for sales. After the winter, the growth of the domestic market will be more significant."
“In the first three quarters of this year, the sales growth was mainly from our new products DC inverter fans. The market acceptance exceeded our expectations. The domestic market growth laid the foundation for our annual performance improvement.†Cai Zhengfu said that with Japan, South Korea and Europe and the United States market In contrast, the domestic market, which has been continuously expanded through product innovation and development, has brought stable sales to Emmett.
The market situation of Shenzhen logistics industry has also improved since the fourth quarter. A boss who has been engaged in the logistics industry for many years told the China Securities Journal that the number of corporate orders has increased significantly since October, and the “festival effect†that began in the fourth quarter has pushed the market to reverse. "From the storage situation of the warehouse, we can see that the market is indeed changing. At present, the foreign trade warehouses of large port areas such as Yantian and Shekou in Shenzhen are basically in full warehouse." Zheng Yanling, Secretary General of Shenzhen Logistics and Supply Chain Management Association, introduced Christmas products in peripheral markets such as Europe and the United States. The demand for orders has increased. For many trading companies and logistics companies that are supporting industries, the market pull effect is very obvious.
As a local advantage manufacturing industry in Shenzhen, the market situation of the LED industry has also begun to recover. Zhang Hongbiao, research director of the Higher Industrial Research Institute, said that in the first two quarters of this year, the number of local LED industry companies in Shenzhen increased significantly, coupled with the slow growth of demand in the foreign LED market, the price of LED products dropped significantly, and most companies felt increasingly sad. In the third quarter, the situation has improved significantly, and more than 70% of enterprises feel that orders have increased. “As Christmas is approaching, the overall export situation of the LED industry has improved. It is expected that the industry situation in the fourth quarter will be slightly better than the third quarter.†Zhang Hongbiao said.
Li Xiaodong, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Edifier (002351, shares it) Technology Co., Ltd. believes that every important holiday at the end of the year, enterprises must start shipping in October and November, orders increase, it is also a seasonal warm-up. "The macroeconomic changes have a greater impact on the overall industry. When the price of upstream production materials declines, it actually increases the profit margin for enterprises." Li Xiaodong said.
Economic steady state is clear
Cai Zhengfu's micro-feeling echoes the macro judgment of HSBC's chief economist Qu Hongbin. Qu Hongbin believes that the new orders rebounded. In October, HSBC's manufacturing PMI hit a new high in eight months, indicating that the previous policies have gradually become effective, and the economic growth is stable. However, he pointed out that the growth stabilization so far is mainly due to the recovery of domestic demand. A series of policy measures, including liquidity support, capital investment acceleration and expansion of fiscal expenditure, have gradually emerged in the early stage, and corporate confidence has rebounded. In addition, the destocking is nearing the end, and the purchase price of raw materials in October will support the enterprise inventory replenishment. From the trend of the new export order index, the weak external demand will continue. The export growth rate rebounded to around 10% in September, but this growth rate may be difficult to sustain. The turnover of the Canton Fair in autumn fell by 7.7% compared with the spring. The survey showed that only 20% of exporters' export orders increased.
The signs of economic stabilization have made many foreign banks confident in the prospects of China's economy. The HSBC report believes that the Chinese economy is bottoming out and is expected to be completed in the third quarter, and the economic low position is basically determined. Société Générale (601166) expects China's GDP growth rate to rebound to around 7.7% in the fourth quarter. Industry insiders analyzed that economic growth has shown signs of bottoming out. From the indicators of industrial production, investment and consumption, the kinetic energy of economic growth has recovered.
Lu Ting, chief economist of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Greater China, raised the forecast of China's economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year from 7.5% to 7.8%, and raised China's GDP growth forecast for the whole year of this year from 7.6%. To 7.7%, the 2013 GDP growth rate is expected to increase from 7.6% to 8.1%. “More and more evidence shows that the Chinese economy has seen a “green shoot.†The prices of cement, iron ore, steel and transportation have recently rebounded. The stocks of coal, iron ore and certain raw materials are declining. During the National Day Golden Week, Chinese consumer demand was strong. Manufacturing profit growth improved in September. In addition, if corporate bonds and trust loans were taken into account, the pace of credit growth accelerated significantly in September. Finally, the US economy The future prospects have improved significantly, and a series of recently released economic data is encouraging.†Lu Ting pointed out that China’s GDP growth rate on a quarterly basis (adjusted by seasonal factors, but not converted to adulthood) may reach a low point in the third quarter of 2012: 2.2%, but due to the base effect, the annual growth rate of GDP has already been in the upward trend, and it is likely to reach a high point in the first half of 2013: 8.3%. 
LED industry market situation recovery "sprout" enterprise transformation still needs to be strengthened
In October, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) returned to the dry line, indicating that domestic manufacturing activity has stabilized. In fact, other macroeconomic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits and fixed asset investment have also shown signs of improvement. Many foreign banks issued reports that the Chinese economy has stabilized in the third quarter.