Negative growth in mobile phones, where components and applications go?

Negative growth in mobile phones, where components and applications go?

Whether it is the global market or the Chinese market, the decline in smart phone shipments in 2017 was the first time in history.

According to market analysis agency IDC, global smartphone shipments in 2017 decreased by 0.1% from 2016 to 1.472 billion. As the most important regional market in the world, China entered a period of low growth as early as 2014, but negative growth was the first time. According to data released by the market analysis organization Canalys, the total smartphone shipments in China in 2017 was 4.59. Billion-dollar companies fell 4% year-on-year, especially in the fourth quarter, with shipments of 113 million units, a decrease of 14% compared to the same period of last year.

In China and the United States, the replacement cycle of mobile phones is becoming longer, the number of mobile phone manufacturers is rapidly declining, market share is further concentrated on oligarchs, and the mobile phone market is gradually following the PC market. Breakthrough innovation is difficult and the pattern is increasingly solidified.

5G brings new scenes

However, the smart phone market is bred with new variables. The commercialization of the fifth-generation communications technology (5G) will be used to expand the imagination of smart phone applications. In the three major application scenarios of 5G planning, enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) is mainly targeted at the general mobile phone application scenario. The so-called enhancement of mobile broadband is mainly reflected in three aspects: wider coverage, higher traffic density, and faster transmission rate.

Compared to 4G, 5G communication traffic density is increased by 1000 times, transmission rate is increased by 100 times, network-side energy efficiency is increased by 100 times, and mobility is also increased from supporting 350 kilometers per hour to supporting 500 kilometers per hour--thereby covering high-speed rail lines. The improvement of parameters will make the coverage and application sites of the mobile network more extensive. The experience of mobile communication will be greatly improved in large crowded large-scale buildings such as large venues, shopping centers, and office buildings, especially for telecommuting, telemedicine, and remote Applications such as education have greatly promoted.

The virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) industries are also anxious to activate the 5G infrastructure. The minimum requirement for the network between VR and AR is about 200Mbps, and the speed of multiplayer real-time interactive content requires at least several Gpbs, and 4G networks are difficult to support. The high transmission rate, low latency, and high communication capacity of 5G communication will eliminate the problem of insufficient resolution and refresh rate when VR and AR remove the wired connection.

Autopilot Drives Development of Vehicle Communication

As another major application scenario of 5G, the highly reliable low latency (uRLLC) mode is mainly aimed at automotive and industrial applications. A few days ago, the California State Vehicle Administration (DMV) stated that from April 2018, remotely-controlled driverless cars will be tested on California roads. Previously unmanned vehicles on the road required security officers to monitor the status of the vehicle behind the steering wheel, but from April onwards, the real unmanned vehicle will start to go on the road and the security officer can remotely monitor the vehicle. The introduction of this provision will certainly further promote the development of in-vehicle communications.

Currently, dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) and on-board communications based on cellular network technology (C-V2X) have their own supporters. The DSRC has developed earlier. It has been more than ten years old and its technology is relatively mature. The development of C-V2X was relatively late. In early 2015, the 3rd Generation Partnership Project officially launched the technology requirements and standardization research based on C-V2X. The C-V2X requirements study was completed in March 2016. In early 2016, the 3GPP Architecture Working Group launched C-V2X. Framework research, standardization completed at the end of 2016. In 2017, 3GPP announced the first C-V2X physical layer standard for cell-based V2I (Automotive Infrastructure Communication) and V2V (Workshop Communication) communications.

The DSRC has developed well in the United States and the European Union. The autonomous truck fleet formed in Europe has mainly adopted DSRC technology, and companies such as NXP and Renesas have had many application cases on DSRC chips. However, 3GPP is also very strong. Huawei, Ericsson, Intel, Nokia, Qualcomm, etc. are also actively promoting the industrialization of C-V2X chips and devices. Audi, Toyota and other car companies have jointly conducted C-V2X technology testing. The gap between C-V2X and DSRC in the industrialization process has gradually decreased.

The long-term goal of telematics is to transform the vehicle into a huge mobile terminal. However, due to the high requirements for reliability, fault-tolerance and safety of on-board communications, the speed of development is certainly not the same as that of the consumer electronics market. However, the development direction of automotive networking, electrification, and intelligentization has become irresistible, and the highly barrierd automotive industry has flooded into hundreds of new companies in recent years. Almost none of these new companies are engaged in traditional car development, and they are targeting intelligence. The direction of electric vehicles.

The electric trend is unstoppable

The traditional car manufacturers also began to change their minds. Toyota Motor, which is not very enthusiastic about the development of pure electric vehicles, made major adjustments to the company's structure in the second half of 2017 and announced that it will launch 10 models of pure electric vehicles around 2020. Toyota Akira The man said at the Consumer Electronics Show in 2018 that Toyota will be transformed into a travel service company. European major auto companies have also begun to invest more in pure electric routes. BMW has invested 240 million U.S. dollars to build the world's largest battery R&D center, and Daimler has invested 500 million euros to build its own battery factory. Volkswagen even announced it until 2030. It will invest 70 billion euros in the field of batteries and electric vehicles.

The original mature and rigid auto market structure has been uncertain under the impact of new technologies, and the traditional auto supply chain structure is facing reconstruction. Parts suppliers, especially major chip suppliers, will have more autonomy in the auto industry. If the car really becomes a super mobile terminal, the automotive industry supply chain may be dominated by the supplier.

Things to see NBIoT

There are also some markets that are gradually moving from free growth to maturity. This is the case for IoT applications. Although fragmentation still exists, networking standards are still not unified, and there is no fundamental solution to the safety of networked devices, the acceptance of the Internet of Things is obviously increasing, especially in the industrial and commercial IoT fields. There are clear figures for the return on investment of the Industrial Internet of Things. Relatively speaking, the unclear business model is still the key reason for the tepid consumer Internet of Things.

How NBIoT will break in 2018 will be the biggest attraction in the Internet of Things market. Encouraging telecom operators to participate in the IoT ecosystem will have a major impact on the entire IoT market. Consumer IoT markets such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart retails, etc., are expected to gain greater impetus.

The real opportunity is often unexpected

Hotspot technologies such as blockchain and artificial intelligence can also be integrated into the Internet of Things. This round of artificial intelligence boom has continued for more than two years. Many start-up products have to be launched in 2018. At present, the most mature applications of artificial intelligence are focused on video (picture) and audio processing, security monitoring and other Internet of things terminal equipment. It is their natural goal.

In 2017, the impact of blockchain on the electronic industry chain is more than Bitcoin mining. As the Bitcoin market is booming and the supply of miners is in short supply, it has caused a tight supply of various components. Bitland’s market share in the lead foundry TSMC is second only to Huawei Hass, ranking second among mainland design companies. This has caused a certain degree of tightness in wafer manufacturing supply. Analysts also believe that ceramic laminated capacitors The out-of-stock of the (MLCC) is also related to the heat of the miner's engine. Using about 190 dedicated chips from a mining machine in Bitland, it can be judged that the number of MLCC capacitors used for filter decoupling is at least 5,000.

This unanticipated application boomed and the impact on the entire supply chain was very high (because the previous production budget had not been estimated), and the price of memory in 2017 soared, allowing Samsung to dismiss Intel and become a new global The largest semiconductor manufacturer ended the history of Intel’s 24 consecutive years of dominance.

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